The BSE Sensex plummeted 1,236 points, wiping out nearly Rs 7 lakh crore in investor wealth, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran and subsequent market selloff.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday revised upward its growth estimates for the current fiscal year to 6.8 per cent and lowered its inflation projection to 2.6 per cent based on an above-normal monsoon and the rationalisation of GST rates.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation hitting an all-time low in October would encourage the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate in its upcoming December 3-5 meeting. However, the July-September GDP growth, expected to be above 7 per cent, may act as a deterrent.
India's housing finance sector is riding a wave of post-pandemic revival, driven by policy support, digital innovation, and growing demand from younger homebuyers in emerging cities.
Wholesale price inflation moderated to 2.31 per cent in January due to the decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Friday showed. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.37 per cent in December 2024. It was 0.33 per cent in January 2024.
Retail inflation in August rose slightly to 2.07 per cent from 1.61 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to increase in prices of vegetables, meat and fish, according to a government data released on Friday.
Retail inflation slowed to 5.48 per cent in November compared to 6.21 per cent in October, mainly due to easing food prices, especially vegetables, according to government data released on Thursday. According to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), the inflation in the food basked reduced to 9.04 per cent in November. It was 10.87 per cent in October and 8.70 per cent in November 2023.
The best way for India to prepare is by preserving and strengthening the RBI's hard-won credibility, point out Rajeswari Sengupta and Vaishali Garga.
Retail inflation dipped to an over six-year low of 2.82 per cent in May due to subdued food prices, remaining below the RBI's median target of 4 per cent for the fourth consecutive month, according to government data released on Thursday. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation was 3.16 per cent in April and 4.8 per cent in May 2024.
Wholesale price inflation dropped to 0.85 per cent in April as prices of food articles, manufactured products, and fuel eased, government data showed on Wednesday. WPI-based inflation was 2.05 per cent in March. It was 1.19 per cent in April last year.
The European Union's (EU's) offer to slash tariffs on 97.5 per cent of Indian chemical exports to zero is set to give India's pharmaceutical and medical device firms preferential access to the European markets.
Retail inflation slipped to 1.54 per cent in September from 2.07 per cent in the preceding month mainly due to subdued prices of food items, including vegetables and pulses, according to government data released on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation was 5.49 per cent in September 2024.
Analysts have sharply reduced cigarette maker ITC's earning estimates for the next two years, fearing a significant dent in the company's profitability and margins. This is owing to a steep hike in excise duty on tobacco by the government.
The Indian services sector growth touched an 11 month high in July, supported by a pickup in new exports orders and sharp rise in overall sales, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index was at 60.5 in July, little-changed from 60.4 in June, and the rate of expansion was the best seen since August 2024.
Stock markets snapped the four-day falling streak on Tuesday with the benchmark Sensex rebounding by 317 points on buying in auto and pharma shares amid a decline in retail inflation to a more than six-year low, nearing the RBI's comfort zone. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 317.45 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 82,570.91. During the day, it jumped 490.16 points or 0.59 per cent to 82,743.62. The 50-share NSE Nifty edged higher by 113.50 points or 0.45 per cent to 25,195.80.
After a record-breaking year, India's automobile industry is entering 2026 on a relatively strong footing, with sales growth expected in the 6-8 per cent range. The outlook is underpinned by policy support, including GST rationalisation, easing monetary conditions, and income tax relief, which together are likely to improve affordability and sustain consumer demand across vehicle segments.
Gold and silver prices are poised to maintain their record-setting rally in the coming week as investors focus on global inflation data and key macroeconomic indicators that shape central bank policy paths, analysts said.
The domestic stock market this week would monitor the geopolitical developments after India and Pakistan reached an understanding to stop military actions, analysts said. Moreover, macroeconomic data announcements, Q4 earnings, trading activity of foreign investors and global market trends are also likely to influence sentiments, traders said.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Steel, Eternal, Tech Mahindra, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, HCL Tech, Tata Consultancy Services and Bharti Airtel were the major gainers. Telecom operator Bharti Airtel climbed nearly 1 per cent after it posted about a five-fold jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 11,022 crore in the March 2025 quarter, mainly due to the tariff hike impact and one-time gain on tax benefits. However, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Kotak Mahindra Bank, NTPC and Power Grid were among the laggards.
The decision to hike US H-1B visa application fee to $100,000, trade talks and the GST rate cut will be the key drivers for stock market movement this week, analysts said.
India's manufacturing sector activity strengthened in October, buoyed by Goods and Services Tax relief, productivity gains and tech investment, even as international sales rose at a weaker pace, a monthly survey said on Monday.
Retail inflation slowed to a four-month low of 5.22 per cent in December compared to 5.48 pc in November, mainly due to easing of prices in food basket, according to government data released on Monday. The inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 5.48 per cent in November and 5.69 per cent in December 2023.
Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
Gold prices tumbled by Rs 1,550 to Rs 91,450 per 10 grams in the national capital on Monday amid heavy selling by jewellers and stockists as well as weak global trend, according to the All India Sarafa Association. On Friday, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had finished at Rs 93,000 per 10 grams.
Wholesale price-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the fifth straight month in August at (-)0.52 per cent, but prices of food articles and fuel showed an uptick. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation rate has been in the negative since April and was (-)1.36 per cent in July. In August last year it was 12.48 per cent. Inflation in food articles remained in double digit at 10.60 per cent in August, lower than 14.25 per cent in July.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for the current financial year, lower than 5.4 per cent in the last fiscal. Assuming a normal monsoon this year, CPI (consumer price index-based) inflation for the current year is projected at 4.5 per cent, with Q1 at 4.9 per cent, Q2 at 3.8 per cent, Q3 at 4.6 per cent, and Q4 at 4.5 per cent.
Retail inflation slipped to seven-month low of 3.61 per cent in February mainly due to easing prices of vegetables, eggs, and other protein-rich items, creating space for the RBI to go for another cut in interest rate next month.
Retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. Retail inflation trended below the RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent since September last year.
Continuing the downward trend, retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.31 per cent in January, mainly due to a decline in the prices of vegetables, eggs, and pulses. The Consumer Price Index-based retail inflation was 5.22 per cent in December and 5.1 per cent in January 2024. The previous low inflation was in August 2024 at 3.65 per cent.
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
'The US reciprocal tariff has added another element of uncertainty and the central bank may prefer to wait and get further clarity.'
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday lowered the inflation projection for the current fiscal to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent earlier, taking into account good agricultural output and falling crude prices.
The short-term inflation outlook for India is benign, and the expectation of a normal monsoon and moderating global prices of key imported items give credence to the projections made by the RBI and IMF, the Economic Survey said on Monday. However, to ensure long-term policy stability, the Survey 2023-24 suggested making focused efforts to increase the production of major oilseeds, expanding the area under pulses, and assess the progress in developing modern storage facilities for specific crops.
On a point-by-point basis, the CPI index reported a marginal rise of 0.65 per cent during October to 619 points compared to 615 points in September.
Retail inflation in August inched up to 3.65 per cent, though vegetables and pulses witnessed price rise in double digits, according to official data released on Thursday. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), however, remained below the Reserve Bank's median target of 4 per cent for the second month in a row. It was at a five-year low of 3.6 per cent in July.
While the economy will wait for a rate cut in December, the banking industry should be happy with the wave of liberalisation -- a big push for growth in bank credit, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Mixed views were expressed by top economists on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to hold the repo rate at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance. While some say the decision was as expected and one more rate reduction is expected this fiscal, there is also a view that rate cut by MPC was warranted given the evolving global situation.
'Defence, capital goods, engineering, capital market-related stocks, autos, and cement sectors are my bullish bets for Samvat 2082.'
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
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